Why Aotearoa Can Feed 40 Million People - But Not Its Own
Food security is a growing issue in Aotearoa New Zealand. According to the New Zealand Food Network, over 60 food hubs nationwide supplied food to more than half a million Kiwis last year – a number that continues to grow. However, the volume of food supplied has not increased, meaning recipients are now receiving less than in previous years.
Food banks and hubs provide a critical service to an estimated 10% of our population, but are a temporary fix for a food system under strain. It is estimated that about 20% (~1 million) of our population are unable to access sufficient affordable, nutritious food on a regular basis. However, as a nation we produce food to feed 40 million people globally. This mismatch between production and access highlights a major structural failure in our national food system.
Food price inflation has hit Kiwi budgets hard, rising above 6% for much of 2022–2024, peaking over 12%, and now back above 5%, compared with under 3% in the five years before 2020 (New Zealand Food Inflation). Prices have climbed faster than other goods - nearly double the New Zealand Core Inflation Rate - and concern is growing nationwide, including at Whirika, where the team has been closely examining its underlying drivers.
The Hidden Cost of our Export Economy
Most of the production for many food categories in Aotearoa is exported. Our economy has long been underpinned by commodity exports, and there is little evidence this will change in the near future. As a result, local food prices are pegged to the value of food as an export. For example, butter prices have doubled in the past year, mirroring international demand rather than domestic affordability.
As healthier less processed food becomes more expensive, cash-strapped consumers are pushed towards poorer quality, highly processed ‘fast’ foods. This trend has significant social and health impacts, especially when it occurs en masse. Impacts include:
Reduced capacity for families to provide home-cooked meals.
Increased sugar consumption among children, affecting health and behaviour.
Greater vulnerability for the elderly and at-risk groups.
These outcomes reflect not just a cost-of-living issue, but a systemic weakness in how our food economy serves local communities. Could a more locally oriented food system offer relief, or do we simply need lower prices for good food? Would government intervention to reduce prices ever be justified?
Lessons from a Decade of Foodshed Research
Our work over the last decade investigating regional food production and distribution in Aotearoa highlights just how much food is produced, where it goes, and what that means for communities.
Since 2016, we’ve been building a body of work on foodshed and food system analysis across Aotearoa, each project deepening our understanding of how regional food economy's function and where their vulnerabilities and opportunities lie. Our first step was the Otago Food Economy Report (2016), which gave us baseline data and a new methodology to map local production against demand.
The Buller Food Resilience Project (2023) tested whether a relatively isolated community could be self-sufficient during disruption. Despite surpluses in milk and red meat, Buller produced only 39% of its own food needs and depended heavily on imports for vegetables, grains, and fruit. Despite an estimated 99.66% of all food required to feed the population of the Buller district coming from outside the district, the community’s aspirations and willingness to support local food systems highlighted untapped potential for greater resilience.
Infographic from the Waikato Regional Foodshed Analysis.
The Wellington Regional Food System Overview (2024) confirmed a similar pattern: significant agricultural output but limited local access. Producers faced economic and regulatory barriers to selling locally, with supermarket dominance and import reliance (notably pork) reinforcing a system geared toward export. The research highlighted the potential of food hubs, mid-scale enterprises, and collaboration to shift toward a fairer and more sustainable food economy.
In the Waikato Foodshed Analysis (2024), we saw both abundance and imbalance. The region produces more than enough food overall, but its focus on dairy and red meat, combined with declining diversity, limits resilience. Land well-suited for fruit and vegetable production has increasingly moved to livestock, though diversification remains both possible and promising.
Across all regions, a consistent picture emerges: New Zealand’s food system is highly productive yet structurally unbalanced - shaped by export dependence, narrow land use, and barriers to local supply. But these studies also reveal clear opportunities: strong community demand, regional capacity, and growing momentum toward more resilient, diverse, and locally grounded food economies.
You can read the executive summaries for all of these projects here: https://www.whirika.co.nz/case-studies/a-decade-of-foodshed-research.
Rebalancing Aotearoa’s Food System
Aotearoa New Zealand’s food system is an important part of our economy. Food exports contribute significantly to GDP, employ thousands, and support many rural livelihoods. However, our food system requires rebalancing to ensure that alongside meeting economic goals it also supports the health and wellbeing of all New Zealanders.
So where can we start to look to reform this system? We have some ideas.
1. Parallel Food Systems
A more local, parallel food system, could provide an alternative to the hyper-profit model of our supermarket duopoly (Supermarkets' Super Profits - Consumer NZ) while reducing pressure on producers forced into unsustainable, low-margin production systems. Such a system would see local control of parts of the food system, including outlets and supply chains, improving community resilience and providing economic opportunities. It would require investment in infrastructure and system development.
Farm stand at the Dunedin Farmers Market.
Farmers Markets & Direct-To-Consumer Models
Farmer’s markets and the like are a proven and enduring concept. While the produce is seldom cheaper than at a supermarket, returns go directly to the producers- who typically are smaller or mid-sized producers. Seasonal and local supply may lack the convenience that consumers expect, but as living costs rise, the value of affordability is beginning to outweigh convenience. Consumers are likely to become more open to varying where and how they shop if it’s cheaper – trading their time for lower priced food. These direct-to-consumer markets provide fresher, local food with shorter supply chains and less emissions associated with transport and storage.
"Ag of the Middle”: Strengthening Mid-Scale Producers
There are many farms surrounding major towns and cities that could contribute to a shorter, more localised, food system. These ‘Ag at the middle’ type businesses are of small to medium size, often not faring so well in the export-focussed commodity markets which reward economies of size. ‘Ag of the middle’ suppliers represent farm sizes that are better aligned to local demand, often with greater capacity to deliver the non-farming components of an food producing enterprise.
Local infrastructure - people, equipment, processing, and logistics - is essential. Investing here can strengthen regional food security and support producers caught between small-scale niche markets and large-scale export operations.
2. Horticulture: Low-Hanging Fruit
Horticulture may offer a low-hanging fruit opportunity, particularly for properties capable of producing vegetables and fruit with flexibility in produce grown, offering diversity and resilience.
Due to the increased pressure being applied by big grocery chains, we anticipate horticulture would be incentivised to supply new markets if local infrastructure existed. With lower barriers to entry and less onerous food safety requirements than meat or dairy, horticulture can play a leading role in reconnecting communities to nutritious, affordable food.
3. Food Subsidies and Affordability
The topic of food subsidies is central to any discussion of food security. As Kiwis, we wear our subsidy-free agriculture as a badge of honour. Countries like the UK, China, the US, India, and members of the EU make substantial use of them. Could targeted subsidies - perhaps at the point of sale rather than production - help ensure affordability for those who need it most?
Food insecurity leads to mental and physical health harm, contributing to the pressure on our already stretched health sector. Investing taxpayer money to make healthy food more accessible could reduce long-term public health costs while improving wellbeing nationwide.
How will we feed the future?
While there are no obvious, singular solutions to Aotearoa’s food security challenges, the landscape is changing rapidly, potentially offering new openings to intervene. Maybe a novel approach, light on infrastructure and appealing to the public, will emerge that can ease the angst and fill the tummy of over half a million kiwis.
To achieve lasting food security, Aotearoa must look beyond production and exports, placing equal value on access, affordability, and resilience.